Stock Insight

As mentioned at the Stock Insight blog at blogspot.com, this blog at WordPress will be used as an archive only.  It contains all the posts and comments since back in early June, when I switched over to www.stockinsightia.com.   The last post made to that site was on January 1, 2007 (the post below this one).

There may eventually be a glitch with the portfolio tables, as those images are on the GoDaddy.com server, and may be erased.  Hopefully, you will be able to get the gist of what happend that day from my narrative.  If not, I could probably be able to post the table from my PC.  Just email me at stockinsight1@yahoo.com.

Thanks again for all your support!

Rob

The site is supposed to be closed, but I just found out from reader Jerry that the market is closed tomorrow. This is in remembrance of President Ford. I was not aware of this, so that is why you see predictions for “Tuesday” written all over the place in the post below.

This is the last watch list of the year, and the final one for Stock Insight. Let’s hope it’s a good one. One thing to note, yesterday I mentioned that I thought the semi’s would participate in a “January Effect” environment, but unfortunately I could not find many with good charts, therefore you will not see many below.

1. ISV (Insite Vision Inc.) - Closed at $1.55, up .02 on Friday. This stock has been on the list twice, with the most recent time being the most successful. The stock made a nice move up from where we recommended it around $1.50, all the way up to about $1.95. That apex came in mid-December. Since then the stock has had a severe pullback, and has fallen as low as $1.35. That mark was below all three major moving averages. On Wednesday of last week, the stock began to rebound. First it surpassed and closed above its 50 DMA ($1.52) on Thursday, and then on Friday it closed above its 20 day EMA at $1.54. The MACD has been improving during this rebound, as it is now heading for the bullish crossover, after being way extended in negative territory. The RSI just popped back over the 50 level. I think the stock is ready for another nice move up now. Most likely back up into the $1.90’s, but at least to the 200 DMA at $1.79. I would look to enter around $1.50 to $1.54 . My line in the sand would be $1.45. See current chart below:

2. IRSN (Irvine Sensors Corp.) - Closed at $2.05, down .13 on Friday. This stock is new to the list. For more information, check out Saturday’s Stock Spotlight (the post below this one).

3. AVCI (Avici Systems Inc.) - Closed at $7.74, down .15 on Friday (down .11 for the week). This stock is back on the list again. As you can see things progressed a little slower than I originally expected. I thought any re-test of the 20 day EMA ($7.66) would occur by Tuesday, and then the stock would close above $8.00 by the end of the week. Unfortunately, the stock ended up coming its closest to re-testing the 20 day EMA on Friday, and has yet to close above $8.00. That being said, I think my original scenario is still possible this week. The MACD is just above the center line, and should be an indication that this recent pullback is complete. Additionally, the RSI is still above 50. I would look to enter around $7.70 to $7.75. My line in the sand is around $7.60. The key is closing above $8.00. I think that will be our sign that this one is finally ready to move consistently higher. See current chart below:

4. ACCL (Accelrys Inc.) - Closed at $6.01, up .06 on Friday. This stock was on the list back in October, and did well for us. Since that time it began to break down in late November, and fell below both its 20 day EMA and 50 DMA. The stock went as low as $5.50 to $5.60 in mid-December, but then has made a nice recovery here over the last week. It is now trading above its 20 day EMA ($5.90), and headed towards its 50 DMA ($6.11). The MACD is looking strong, and is a few days into its bullish crossover. The RSI just past the 50 mark on Thursday. It looks to me that this one should be heading back up to $6.40 resistance in the short term. I would look to enter somewhere between $5.90 and $6.00 on Tuesday. My line in the sand would be $5.85. See current chart below:

5. ANAD (Anadigics, Inc.) - Closed at $8.86, down .01 on Friday. This stock has been on the list a few times with decent success. The last time, was probably the only time things did not go real well. I think the stock will get pushed up by the “January Effect” next week. Looking at the chart, the stock is now hung up just above its 50 DMA ($8.84), and its 20 day EMA ($9.02). I think if it can move over that last one, we may see a breakout. The MACD looks good, as it has been improving over the last several days, and is headed for the bullish crossover. Meanwhile, the RSI is not cooperating just yet, as it is just below the 50 level. A close above the 20 day EMA may be able to help push that over. I would look to enter around $8.85 on Tuesday, and make $8.75 my line in the sand on the downside. See current chart below:

6. BORL (Borland Software Corp.) - Closed at $5.44, up .04 on Friday. This one was on the list once before, and did not do much for us. Looking at the chart, there was a big surge on Friday that took the stock past all three moving averages, on good volume. There was no news behind this move. The stock ended up closing above the 20 day EMA ($5.37), and the 200 DMA ($5.40). It was just shy of closing above the 50 DMA ($5.45). I think we will see that on Tuesday. The MACD made the bullish crossover on Friday, and the RSI popped over 50 that day as well. All good signs. If the stock does not gap up that morning, I would look to enter between $5.38 and $5.44. My line in the sand would be $5.30. See current chart below:

7. BLTI (Biolase Technology Inc.) - Closed at $8.75, up .11 on Friday (up .03 for the week). This stock was on the list last week, and is back on, because I do not think it has done all that I expected. The stock needs to bust through $8.75. If it can accomplish that, it should hit $9.00 easily. I would look to enter between $8.70 and $8.75. I would make the 20 day EMA ($8.59) my line in the sand. For more analysis , and the current chart, check out Friday’s Closing Numbers post (the one five below this one).

8. GACF (Global Aircraft Solutions Inc.) - Closed at $1.04, up .02 on Friday. This stock was on the list back in July, and did okay for us. It did better for those of us that jumped out early. I was not one of them. Looking at the chart now, it looks like it may be ready to make a good move up. I think it is a good company as well. After the stock fell into the low .90’s in mid-December, it made a nice surge back up. That surge moved it over the 20 day EMA and 50 DMA, but halted it right before the 200 DMA ($1.20 at the time). The stock has re-traced over the last week, after hitting that mark, but has found support at the 20 day EMA ($1.01). I am looking for the stock to begin heading higher again now, and most likely challenge the 200 DMA (now at $1.19). Look for resistance at the 50 DMA ($1.04) initially. The MACD is declining, but is in positive territory, so I would not worry about it. The RSI just bounced off the 50 level, which is a good sign. I would look to enter between $1.01 and $1.04, and my line in the sand would be tight at $1.00. See current chart below:

A stock to keep in an eye on over the next week or so - HEC. I am not advocating picking this one up just yet, but at .50, that seems pretty low for this stock. At .40, that should be a bargain. It’s a good energy stock, and usually rallies from that spot. Since the site is ending after today, I thought I would bring it to your attention.

That’s the list for this week, have a great rest of the day, and a Happy New Year!

Stock Insight, December 31st, 2006

This is the final Stock Spotlight, hopefully it’s a good one.

IRSN - Irvine Sensors Corp. (Nasdaq:CM) Company website:
http://www.irvine-sensors.com

Closed at $2.05, down .13, on Friday. Below is a description of what they do from Yahoo!:

Irvine Sensors Corporation engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of miniaturized electronic products for defense, security, and commercial applications. The company, using a three-dimensional (3-D) stacking technology, develops collateral technologies for the design of low power and low noise chips, thinning of chips, and various specialized applications of chips and stacked chip assemblies for wireless infrared transmission, miniaturized sensors, image processing, infrared cameras, and Internet data transmission, and switching applications. It offers its products and prototypes for ultra high speed image processing, miniature infrared cameras, 3-D laser imaging, embedded computing, image enhancement and stabilization, stacked memory, and infrared data communication applications. The company markets its stacked and packaged memory products to original equipment manufacturers. Irvine Sensors Corporation was incorporated in 1974 and is headquartered in Costa Mesa, California.

I think the above description does the company justice. It is in the semi-conductor industry. I think these types of stocks normally perform well during the January Effect that takes place within the first two weeks of January. That is one of the reasons why I am profiling it at this time. The other reason, is that it also looks good technically at this time. Before I get into that aspect of the stock, I will go into the current financials, which is another bright spot here.

The company has been doing a good job increasing top line revenue growth. Other than in quarter 1, they have been able to sequentially grow revenue quarter over quarter. They were able to cut their losses the last quarter (3rd) over quarter, but that was only because they lost a lot in the second quarter. Other than that, it has been mixed as far as income goes. See link to financials below:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=irsn

Before I go any farther, the company’s fiscal year starts on October 2nd. Unfortunately, we do not have data for the fourth quarter yet, which ended on October 1st. What we do have, is the 4th quarter for last year, and the next three quarters after that. Judging from the amount of revenue the company made in the third quarter ($8.7 Million), the announcement on November 16th that they had booked $16.6 Million in the first six weeks of that quarter, was huge. That is double what they made in their very best quarter in the last year, and in half the time. No wonder the stock shot up from $1.07 to $3.30 in one day. That was triple the previous days stock price. That brings us to the technical picture.

Prior to that huge surge, the stock had been trading below all three of it’s major moving averages. Afterwards, the stock was trading above all three. The stock did not stay as high as $3.30 on the first day, as it closed at $2.39. The stock continued to re-trace over the next few days, and fell back below its 200 DMA. It did seem to find support at the 20 day EMA, and traded around it for about two weeks, before moving back above the 200 DMA again. The stock was able to breach the $2.40 level briefly after that move over the 200 day, but quickly retreated back down. Over the last couple of weeks the stock has primarily stayed above both the 20 day EMA ($2.01) and the 200 DMA ($1.89). As you can see, over time the 20 day EMA has risen over the 200 DMA, which is bullish. During these last two weeks the stock has only violated the 20 day EMA once, as it spiked down below it and the 200 DMA on Thursday. The stock quickly reversed, and closed above both. On Friday (yesterday), it re-tested the 20 day EMA successfully, and never dropped below it. See current chart below:

I think a good entry for Tuesday would be right around that 20 day EMA at $2.00 or so. My line in the sand would be the 200 DMA at around $1.89. I would expect a move up to the $2.40 to $2.50 resistance area initially. If the stock can move beyond that, we could see $3.00 easily. Additionally, the company may have financial news out soon, and it should be very good. That could be a real good catalyst here. Looking at the RSI and MACD, the former looks good, as it is still above the 50 level, and looks like it is setting up for a possible bounce off of it. The latter, does not look as good, as it just made the bearish crossover. However, looking a recent history, there have been two other occasions where this occurred, and it was very short lived (see golden circles on chart).

Stock Insight, December 30, 2006

Remember to check back tomorrow for the weekly Stocks to Watch list.

The results are in for the final Stock Insight, stock picking contest. Hard to believe how fast this has gone. In past contests we usually do not have much change in the final week, but this time was very different. While the contestants who were previously in first through fifth place had no change, there was a big change from the last position. With just a few days to go before the end, Iouri vaulted into first place from last. Congrats Iouri! You are this month’s contest winner. I will be sending you a check for $20. The final results are below:Iouri - IFON: Buy price: $3.92 High price so far: $6.83 Gain: 74%

Unfortunately, the last day of the year, and the last week of the year, ended on a sour note. I will say I was close to at least making the day okay, as the portfolio was only down $254, and a couple of stocks above could have gone either way at the close. Obviously, they did not go “my” way. The final YTD number came out to be almost +27%. A respectable figure, but certainly not spectacular. At one point early on this month it was in the high 40’s. That would have been nice. Unfortunately, yesterday’s debacle with SGEN and ALTH hurt any chance I had with even finishing in the 30’s. I am expecting a better year next year. We should be entering a fed cut environment soon, and that has always been a boon for stocks. One thing I will have to say for this year, is that I have learned quite a bit, even though I am about to hit my 15th year of investing. I think my interactions with you, the readers, has been very beneficial. Having an additional sets of eyes on you, helps you become more disciplined, and less likely to veer from your plan.

I wish all of you GREAT success in the coming new year. You ALL deserve it!

That’s it for Stock Insight’s final wrap-up. Stayed tuned for a contest update tonight, and the Stock Spotlight tomorrow.

The Nasdaq was down again today, this time by over 10 points (it was down by 5 1/2 points yesterday). The stocks on the list and in the portfolio were mixed again.

BLTI - $8.75, up .11, on below average volume. Range was $8.58 to $8.75. This stock had a decent day, but just came up short of having a really great day. It made a higher low and higher high, which included staying primarily above the 20 day EMA ($8.59) and closing at the high of the day ($8.75). Unfortunately, that $8.75 area has been stiff resistance over the last week or so, and the stock could not get through it yet again. Other than that the indicators look real good here, the RSI continues to move higher after bouncing off the 50 level, and the MACD is continuing to move closer to the bullish crossover. A move up into the $8.80’s on Tuesday would be ver bullish. See current chart below:

AVCI - $7.74, down .15, on low volume. Range was $7.77 to $8.03. This stock did not have that good of a day, as it made a lower low and lower high, and still could not close above $8.00. That being said, it still has a good chart. The stock is trading above all three moving averages, the RSI is heading down, but still over 50, and the MACD holding tight just above the center line. The moment of truth should be coming for this stock on Tuesday. If it can hold the 20 day EMA ($7.66), and the MACD can stay above the center line, and the RSI can stay above the 50 level on Tuesday, we should see a nice turnaround shortly. If any one of those fails, they will probably all fail in the short term, and the stock will head lower. We’ll see how it goes Tuesday. The current chart is below:

There was not any news for the stocks that we follow today.

I expect to have tonight’s normal update’s, including a contest update. Tomorrow will be the final YTD update for 2006, plus the Stock Spotlight. Sunday will be the final watch list. Right now I can tell you that AVCI and BLTI will be on that list. The rest will be stocks that I think can participate in the “January Effect”. I will not be following the stocks on that list, since that would occur after the 31st. I plan to hold AIS, MMIO, and one other stock next week. I plan to hold the former long term, and sell the latter for a double or triple. I also plan to sell the rest of my ALTH on Tuesday. Whatever cash is leftover after that, will be withdrawn to pay bills. I’ll let you guys know what I do sometime next week at the old site (http://stockdollars.blogspot.com).

Additionally, On Sunday I plan to contact you all on refund amounts, and verify addresses. I will also attempt to export this blog at www.stockinsightia.com to my other Stock Insight blog at WordPress. I’ll provide the link if that ends up being successful.

Thanks again for being such great subscribers, and feel free to stay in touch.

PS: This will not be my last good bye message for this site…..

Sold the 5,000 shares I bought yesterday, at $5.91 a little bit ago. That ended up being a small profit for me on those shares. I am still holding my original 5,000 shares. I hope to sell those on Tuesday (the market is closed Monday).

Sold all 20,000 shares at $1.23, per my plan from what I said in the previous post. $1.24 had been good support, but then it fell, so I took that as a bad sign. $1.26 may be may be too much resistance for this stock. We’ll see.